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Event description

On March 3rd -4, we held a "road - Zhiyuan 2016 new energy vehicle investment strategy".

Event review

Upstream view: it is expected that the short one to two quarters, domestic lithium salt prices will remain strong and prospects for overseas transaction price greatly Buzhang. 1) at the supply. During the year Orocobre is amounted to 0.8-1 million tons, through the channels of Toyota Tsusho imports to domestic volume remaining uncertainty. It is expected that 1-2 years for the Chinese market, the Australian mining production is accelerated apparently; in addition, into Q2 domestic salt lake, the mine production running also concern; overall, high industry boom is spurring a new project to accelerate, but production need a certain time period. 2 look at the demand, the beginning of positive materials, battery capacity continues to expand production, Q3-Q4 terminal sales is expected to fast heavy volume, further stimulating the upstream demand.

Middle reaches of the point of view: according to the annual production scale of 600 thousand units of production and sales estimates, 1) power battery demand or an increase of 8 into 34GWh, while the rapid expansion of production capacity, the annual supply and demand tend to balance. High end products in short supply, the price is smaller. 2) positive overall surplus, the metal price + processing fees "pricing model although lithium carbonate conduction pressure on prices but gross margin declined, a considerable part of independent pricing high-end product gross margin; dry diaphragm is sufficient capacity and the wet membrane still exists gap, gross margin higher; electric solution step, LFP6 annual supply remains tight, the recent part of the price of bulk cargo has to 40 million yuan, judge throughout the year to maintain a high of 20-25 million yuan. LFP6 prices led to the recent increase in electrolyte prices significantly, individual products offer to reach 80 thousand yuan, up last year doubled. Integrated LFP6 manufacturers to see the biggest benefit, the profitability of the electrolyte plant LFP6 to further enhance the self made. 3) motor control segments of the market is relatively dispersed, the key to see enterprise single sign, at the same time pay attention to the hub motors and other new technology industrialization.

Downstream point of view: the first quarter to judge the scale of production and sales in the three yuan dispute, cheat compensation storm, the Spring Festival holiday, the end of last year to grab equipment and other factors, the chain contraction significantly. Taking into account the central government frequently introduced support policies, the recent continuous introduction of local subsidies, industry maturity to further enhance, optimistic about the second half of last year, a repeat of last year's volume growth. 1 passenger cars: personal consumption will become the main battlefield. The short-term price competition, the long term key technology and service ability after three. 2) bus: a higher base last year, this year the growth rate will slow down. Suspension of three yuan battery does not affect the strategic trend of pure electric car prices. 3) logistics vehicles: economic, environmental protection, the market potential of the three major factors to stimulate the next year or substantial growth.

Charging facilities: the central government attaches great importance to the local, "13th Five-Year" planning for the future, to further accelerate the promotion of. 1) the equipment base and 2020 pile, station reached 450 million, 1 million stand far from the target, a huge market space, the enterprise profit is better. 2) operators rely mainly on charging service fees, the fixed source of the fast charging station profitability better, decentralized AC charging pile is still early.