Looking at the power transformation and development from the "13th Five-Year Plan"

Recently, the China Electricity Council (referred to as CEC) released the "Mid-term Evaluation and Rolling Optimization Research Special Investigation Report of the 13th Five-Year Plan for Power Development." Previously, this report had been submitted to relevant central and national departments. The report fully affirms the new achievements in the adjustment of China's power structure since the 13th Five-Year Plan, with the proportion of installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation increasing from 34.2% at the end of 2015 to 40.8% at the end of 2018, exceeding the planned target of 39% by the end of 2020. In particular, the installed capacity of grid-connected solar power generation reached 170 million kilowatts by the end of 2018, far exceeding the planned target of 110 million kilowatts by the end of 2020; the proportion of non-fossil energy power generation increased from 27.3% at the end of 2015 to 30.9% at the end of 2018, indicating that the development of non-fossil energy has entered a stage of substantial "incremental replacement."

These data indicate that since the 13th Five-Year Plan, China's power structure has continued to optimize, and the installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation has rapidly increased. This is not only a requirement for the high-quality development of China's power sector in the new era but also an external requirement to address climate change and improve environmental quality. During the transition of the national economy from high-speed growth to high-quality development and the comprehensive launch of new electricity reforms, various contradictions have overlapped, making the achievements in power transformation and development quite remarkable.

Optimizing the power structure and promoting clean power development is a major trend in the transformation of China's power and even global energy. However, for many years, there has been significant controversy over how to achieve the transformation of China's power sector, with no party willing to yield. Some advocate for firmly promoting the clean development of coal power, asserting that coal power will serve as the main supply source for a considerable period. Others advocate for the development of hydropower, gas power, and nuclear power to replace coal power incrementally, collectively becoming the main supply source. Still, others advocate for the large-scale development of wind power, solar power, and other renewable energy sources to gradually replace coal power as the main supply source.

Different claims each have their own valid reasons. Proponents of firmly advancing the clean development of coal power argue that China's rich coal resources determine the strategic position of coal power in national energy security. The clean development of coal power, directed towards ultra-low emissions transformation, is currently the cleanest utilization method for coal. The focus of China's energy and power transformation development lies in optimizing the existing coal power capacity, controlling the increase in coal power capacity, and reducing the use of coal for other industrial purposes and non-electric coal. Advocates for the development of hydropower, gas power, and nuclear power argue that even with ultra-low emissions transformation, the natural properties of coal determine that coal power's green indicators will be lower than those of conventional gas and nuclear power, not to mention hydropower. Meanwhile, those advocating for the large-scale development of wind and solar power believe that with the continuous advancement of new energy generation technologies and the ongoing reduction in generation costs, the era of large-scale replacement of coal power and other traditional fossil fuels with new energy has arrived, and the focus of China's energy and power transformation development should be to reduce coal.

Regardless of who is right or wrong, it is better to refocus on the current state of power development in China. According to statistics from the CEC, by the end of 2018, the total installed power generation capacity nationwide was 1.9 billion kilowatts, of which thermal power capacity was 1.14 billion kilowatts, accounting for 60%; thermal power generation was 4.92 trillion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 70.4% of total generation; within thermal power, coal power capacity was 1.01 billion kilowatts, and gas power capacity was 83.3 million kilowatts; in 2018, the utilization hours of thermal power generation were 4,361 hours, which, although 143 hours higher than in 2017, remained at a relatively low level overall. The total installed capacity of hydropower was 350 million kilowatts, accounting for 18.4%; the generation was 1.23 trillion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 17.6% of total generation. Currently, China is in the late stage of industrialization and the rapid advancement of urbanization, with the national economy transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality development. As the national re-electrification process accelerates and "electricity substitution" technologies continue to advance, there is still considerable room for growth in electricity demand in China as we aim to achieve basic socialist modernization by 2035, as proposed at the 19th National Congress.

If we were to follow Germany's proposal to exit coal power by 2038, what could China use to ensure power supply security? China's hydropower technology has limited exploitable capacity and faces challenges such as environmental protection, resettlement, and the difficulty of subsequent hydropower development; nuclear power development is constrained by safety and site limitations; gas power development is hindered by gas supply and price issues; large-scale development of distributed photovoltaic power and decentralized wind power is extremely unrealistic given the limited land and rooftop resources in the central and eastern regions; and establishing large-scale centralized new energy generation bases in the vast western regions faces significant obstacles in terms of economics, safety, and limited transmission corridors due to the reverse distribution of electricity load. Therefore, it is evident that without a revolutionary breakthrough in new energy generation technology, implementing a coal exit in the short term is unfeasible for China.

Currently, the coal power clean development strategy of "optimizing existing capacity, controlling incremental capacity, and fully implementing ultra-low emissions transformation" aligns with the needs of China's energy and power transformation development. In 2018, the newly added coal power capacity nationwide was 29.03 million kilowatts, the lowest level since 2004. Throughout the year, ultra-low emissions transformations were completed for 700 million kilowatts of units, and energy-saving transformations totaled 650 million kilowatts. The emissions of air pollutants from coal power generation in China have reached the best international levels. However, currently, only 50% of coal consumption in China is used for power generation, far below the nearly 90% used for power generation in developed countries. Nearly 50% of other industrial coal and non-electric coal, such as scattered coal, contribute to high pollution, which is a shortcoming in China's green transformation of energy production and consumption, urgently needing to be addressed and corrected through the implementation of "coal-to-electricity" and "re-electrification."

Whether from the perspective of the goals set in the planning or the actual execution, or from the current state of power development in China over the past three years, the "13th Five-Year Plan for Power Development" has truly played a guiding role in current power development. In other words, the "13th Five-Year Plan for Power Development" scientifically answers the path to achieving China's green and low-carbon transformation in the power sector. Especially, the rolling optimization suggestions proposed in the CEC research report further clarify the ideas for promoting power transformation development in China in the new era: advancing clean coal power development, promoting hydropower development and consumption, ensuring the safe development of nuclear power, optimizing the development and layout of new energy, and enhancing the level of grid development, all of which are essential for collaboratively promoting the optimization of the power structure, thereby establishing a modern power industry system that is "safe, economical, green, and sustainable."